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Jason Song

Pascal's Wager

Pascal's Wager is an argument about God presented by the 17th Century mathematician, philosopher, and physicist Blaise Pascal.

Pascal asks, even if you think God doesn't exist, isn't it more rational to live as if God exists? He reasoned as follows:

  • If you lived as if God existed: (1) you may give up some pleasures/vice in life, but that's a small price to pay if God does exist and there is indeed Heaven and Hell; (2) if there is no God, then you would have missed out on life's pleasures/vices, but that's a small price to pay.

  • If you lived as if God doesn't exist: (1) you may live life as you please--indulging in every vice out there--but if God does exist, then you will end up in Hell, an epic fail; (2) if after death you realize that God doesn't exist, then you may have been right all along, but you probably left behind a trail of "bad" rather than good.


In this matrix of choices, the rationality of an individual can be ranked as follows:

  1. Live as if God exists; you die and find out God exists; you end up in Heaven (epic win)

  2. Live as if God doesn't exist; you die and find out God doesn't exist; you did whatever you wanted to in your life (meaningless win)

  3. Live as if God exists, God doesn't exist; you missed out on life's pleasures, vices, etc., but you probably lived a noble life

  4. Live as if God doesn't exist; you die and find out that God does exist; you end up in Hell (epic fail)

How to rank #2 and #3 is debatable, but clearly, #1 is the best long-term choice (rational) and #4 is the worst choice of all (irrational).


Now, it's been said that the most rational choice made (wagering on God's existence and then discovering that God exists after all) isn't the essence of Christianity. I agree. But, Pascal's Wager is more about using one's reasoning ability to make the most rational choice; it is not to be confused with doctrine or theology.


It's amazing to me that atheists are willing to take the risk on epic failure (living as if God doesn't exist and then discovering their irrationality in Hell). Bertrend Russell's protest at the throne of God--"You didn't give me enough evidence"--won't be an acceptable argument. After all, God gave everyone (short of those who have intellectual disability) the ability to reason.

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